Science In Real Life

The Impending Robot Upheaval April 7, 2011

Futurism is a dangerous business. Historically, human beings have shown an ability to predict future events more than, say, a few days in advance that is, on average, much less effective than chance. And the greater the scale of these predictions, the more people involved in making the prediction a reality, the more abysmal our power of precognition becomes. Nowhere is this more evident than in claims about new or (allegedly) forthcoming technology, for the simple reason that technology is the single most rapidly changing field of human endeavor that has ever existed. How many times have we heard that this or that device will be The Next Big Thing, only to have it exert only minimal effect on the lives of those who use it, or only be used in very rare applications, or manifest only as a passing fad, or even never make it to a working prototype, much less the public market? The segway, blu ray, flying cars, laserdisc, video phones, blimps, jetpacks. The simple fact is that no matter how much it may seem to the engineer or the scientist that a given piece of technology will provide definite alterations to society as it presently exists, the economic and social responses are far too complex to anticipate.

So why is it, then, that the title of this essay predicts with such apparent confidence a staggering change to the way our world works as a result of a certain type of technology? Because in this case, the case I am about to present, the mere possibilities are stark enough that we should all be sitting up and taking notice. Risk analysis must be based on both the likelihood and severity of a potentiality; even if the likelihood is very low, the consequences may be severe enough that preparation is called for.

Advances in robotics have been accelerating. In the last ten years, amazing innovations have been made in robotic movement and information processing. As a theoretical physicist, I am trained very thoroughly in learning the basic elements of a system, then anticipating and evaluating the logical consequences. I find that at this point in my career I do this automatically, with almost every situation I come across. And so it was with what I learned today. As soon as I learned of the latest development, a connection was forged in my brain with other robotic inventions of which I already knew, and from the top of my head consequences sprang forth unbidden. Terrifying consequences. Consequences which might never, which hopefully never, come to pass. Let me show you the pieces of which I am aware – and recognize that there are almost certainly pieces of which I am not aware.

This one seems helpful, or at worst innocuous. It is the Brain Computer Interface, and researchers were stunned to find that making one is as easy as directly connecting an input chip to the nervous system. With adaptive software, the plasticity of the brain does the rest, and within a day the brain can, by thought, control whatever device is attached to the system. This video was posted in 2009, and newer BCI systems make this one look slow. Companies like Braingate and IntendiX are already putting these devices on the market and into medical applications. So what do you want to control with your interface?

How about a nice powered exoskeleton? One of these babies enhances strength, speed, and endurance by factors of anything from five to ten. The reaction time gets even faster if the input is from a well-trained neural interface.

Or how about one of these? A company called Boston Dynamics has developed robotic locomotion possessing balance and terrain capability on par with organic systems (you know, animals with legs). Available in regular size (seen there) and fun size.

But maybe legs are too, well, pedestrian. Enter the quadrotor. Developed by UPenn’s GRASP lab, these are autonomous hovering drones capable of astonishing feats of agility and cooperation. That one video does not do justice to their potential. They can do surveillance, dynamic flight adjustment, and cooperative transport of heavy objects. Did I mention they’re autonomous? That doesn’t mean true artificial intelligence, but it does mean that once you give them a goal (like “fly through the opening”, or “keep the ball in the air”) they get the job done without further instruction and by communicating with each other. Oh, and they’re already commercially available.

Now, this is the final piece, the one I found today. It’s not a physical invention, it’s software. Very, very smart software. Given a reference image on any object, this software will be able to track it in a visual field. Not only that, it learns as it watches and improves its tracking. It can pick out faces and objects in rapid, erratic motion. Oh, and it’s called “Predator”.

Some of you readers are already seeing what I see. Combine any of these inventions with any other, or with conventional weaponry, and you have something that the world has never seen, has never had to deal with. Combine a quadrotor, a predator-controlled camera, and a simple explosive. You now have a device that can search for, track, and destroy a specific human target or group of targets. Combine a BCI, a remote datalink, and a locomotive robot with some mounted machine guns, and you have a human mind that can power across a battlefield without suffering any pain. Combine enough quadrotors with any kind of mounted weapon and you have something that can only be described as a swarm.

I don’t know where all this is going. I don’t know which of the possibilities I see, if any, will come to pass. If they are used, I know not who will use them, nor in what way, nor to what purpose. I do know that there are powerful agencies on this planet. I do know that the first-world militaries already have access to all of these pieces, and may have had access for some time. I do know that there are large national and multinational corporations with billions of dollars and unchecked profit motives. I do know that across the world are millions of smart, young, bored people who all have access to some of these pieces, and who might as easily create something horrific as they might create something that will save the world.

Certainly there are many, many positive uses for all of these inventions. I fervently hope those are implemented. But positive or negative, the possibilities from these leaps in robotics are staggering. I am not the only one who sees that. So a change is coming. Bigger than a revolution, bigger than a mere cycling round of human powers. It will be a robot upheaval. When the full force of this entirely new phenomenon comes, it will introduce entirely new elements, and maybe even new members, to society. How can we be ready for this? I haven’t even the slightest idea. Comments, speculation, and additional questions are very welcome.